Abstract

Monthly flow estimation in a river is necessary for effective river and reservoir operations. In this paper, suitable probability functions were established for computing monthly flows in the Mgeni River in South Africa. Techniques of frequency analyses were applied to fit curves of six probability distribution functions (Log-Normal, Normal, Log-Pearson, Pearson, LogGumbel and Gumbel) to stream flows in the river. The Chi-square goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the appropriateness of the models in modeling the stream flow data while the Kruskal-Wallis test was applied to check if there exist differences in model performances. Lastly, a system of test scoring based on three performance measures was adopted to determine the most appropriate model for flow computation in the river. Results showed that all the models performed best in at least one month. The models established in this study are appropriate and are recommended for use estimating flows in the river

Copyright of the paper named above is hereby assigned and transferred to the Nigerian Journal of Applied Science and Innovative Technology published by College of Engineering, Bells University of Technology, Nigeria.